Writing Archive

Real Clear Politics Launches Swing State Review

RCP’s Jay Cost is up with a new series of essays today that will discuss the “electoral landscape of the swing states.” Usually I find Jay’s writings to be extremely well-researched but also down in the weeds of dense data.
The Ohio coverage he has up today, however, is flush with maps and historic anecdotes [...]

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If Ruffini’s “Ohichigan” Model Works, Then…

Patrick Ruffini had an interesting post on Tuesday that essentially argued that McCain has no chance of matching Obama on a broad battlefield, so he might as put his chips on the Ohio/Michigan axis, which amounts to a combined 37 electoral votes:
“The trick this time will be to spin the Buckeye-Wolverine axis as the new [...]

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The Five Places McCain Should Go

Cross-posted at The Next Right.
Politico’s Charlie Mahtesian and Amie Parnes wrote an article yesterday about the “Five Places Obama Should Go,” and four out of the five areas they identified were places where he struggled against Clinton: Broward County, FL (Jews), Youngstown, OH (blue-collar, gun-owning Catholics), San Antonio (Latinos) and Mingo Couny, WV (“the heart [...]

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Hillary Analyzes the Electoral Map

No, not this blog, but the small-letter electoral map. Here’s what she had to say about the political geography:
“You have to look at what the electoral map is likely to be in the fall, and I don’t think anybody doubts that a Democrat has to have a number of the big states anchored in [...]

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Cillizza to Begin Rating Top 10 States Most Likely to Flip

The Fix’s Chris Cillizza announced on Friday that he’s going to begin dedicating his Friday Line to rating which states are most likely to flip from red to blue (or vice versa) in the presidential election.  In last week’s Line, Cillizza offered his base-Line and predicted that eight of the 10 states most likely to [...]

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Hill is Racking Up Huge Wins in Appalachia

The Cleveland Plain Dealer has an interesting postmortem about how Hillary Clinton won Ohio by racking up votes in the rural part of the state. Plain Dealer reporter Mark Naymik noted, “It came down to places like ‘The Little Smokies,’ the hilly region where the Scioto and Ohio rivers meet, more than 200 miles south [...]

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Darke Outlook for Democrats in Rural Ohio

The Washington Post has a really interesting article today about the voting habits in western Ohio and Darke County in particular.  They conclude that Darke County is as out of the hands of Democrats now as it was in 2004, when George W. Bush took over 70%.  Since its an article about Dems and rural [...]

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Super Tuesday II Maps: Hillary Confirms Her Coalition

Hillary Clinton made another first down last night, but it wasn’t enough to put her into the lead. She also reaffirmed the narrative that she has strong support in blue-collar and Latino communities, winning the Rust-Belt state of Ohio by 10 points and the border state of Texas by four.
In Ohio, she took the [...]

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Thanks for being Patient

I’ll post Super Tuesday II results later today. With the Politics Online Conference conference and other work, I’m a little backed up. But there’s a lot to report, like how Obama dominated Dallas, Austin and Houston but lost almost every other county in Texas. Or how Clinton rode Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland’s coattails [...]

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Super Tuesday II

The Electoral Map will have Super Tuesday II results as soon as they’re available.  McCain is cruising to big victories in Texas and Ohio, and according to Huck –  who is giving his concession speech as I type this – the Arizona senator “will achieve the 1,191 delegates to become the Republican nominee.”
On the Dem [...]

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