Writing Archive

What are the Most and Least “Nativist” States?

These are the states with the highest percentage of native-born residents (color-coded by political competitiveness):
Louisiana – 79.5%
Michigan – 75.7%
Pennsylvania – 75.5%
Ohio – 75.0%
Iowa – 72.5%
These are the states with the fewest native-born residents:
Nevada – 22.7%
Florida – 33.6%
Arizona – 35.4%
Alaska – 38.9%
New Hampshire – 42.0%


The Week in Political Geography: Flanel Shirt Country

My fellow political cartographers – Sorry for the sparse posting recently.  It’s been busy at New Media Strategies with an end of the year push, and most of my political geography time and resources have been devoted to @The_Almanac and major National Journal story I’m writing with Cook Report’s Dave Wasserman about southwest Virginia.
I promise [...]


Astonishing Stat of the Day

H/T Barry Ritholtz:
Just 6 states account for 62% of US total foreclosures:  California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Michigan are the leading states in terms of receiving foreclosure filings. As the chart above shows, California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada have the greatest foreclosure activity.
For what it’s worth, five out of six, with the exception of [...]


Libertarians Could Tip Nevada to Obama

An ongoing battle between the Nevada GOP brass and a fierce faction of Ron Paul loyalists could have major consequences in November: If the rift isn’t healed, the Paul supporters look like they’re poised to cast their ballots for a Paul as a write-in, or support Libertarian candidate Bob Barr or even throw their vote [...]


Once Upon a Time in the West

Once upon a time the West was solid GOP territory, but in 2008, the Democrats hope to make the region competitive.
The Los Angeles Times and the Politico have very similar but interesting articles today about how the top presidential contenders for each party are campaigning throughout the West early this week.  Both Barack Obama and [...]


Navigating the “Southwest Passage”

In a fascinating article in The American Prospect today, Tom Schaller dissects whether or not John McCain will thwart the Democrats’ hopes to capture the southwest in 2008. He makes the usual key points that McCain has good name recognition in the West and has a good rep with Hispanics.
But Schaller also adds some [...]


Candidates Hope to Redraw the Electoral Map

Which candidate can expand the electoral map: Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?  Which one can win the red states that failed Al Gore and John Kerry and pull together a winning geographic coalition? 
These are some of the key questions that Democratic voters are asking as the two presidential hopefuls battle in out in primary [...]


Cillizza to Begin Rating Top 10 States Most Likely to Flip

The Fix’s Chris Cillizza announced on Friday that he’s going to begin dedicating his Friday Line to rating which states are most likely to flip from red to blue (or vice versa) in the presidential election.  In last week’s Line, Cillizza offered his base-Line and predicted that eight of the 10 states most likely to [...]


Will John McCain Paint the Map Red?

John Fund sure thinks so. In a Wall Street Journal column from Monday (that I put off until day because of the Potomac Primary), Fund explains how McCain gets to 270:

New Hampshire: “The Granite State went only narrowly to Mr. Kerry, a senator from a neighboring state, and Mr. McCain has unique advantages there. New [...]


More Nevada and South Carolina Electoral Maps

Nicholas Beaudrot has great maps measuring the strength of the leading candidates in Nevada and South Carolina.  For the Democrats in Nevada, he notes that “Clinton won big not just in Vegas, but also the two neighboring counties, while Obama won the north and fared best in the sparsely populated Northeast.”
Beaudrot’s Nevada Democratic Caucus Map

For [...]