Writing Archive

Morning Reading List – 10 Days to Go

[MAP] Nielsen finds Obama aired 150% more ads than McCain in seven key swing states.
[FL-27] McCain makes a sweep down the crucial/vital/pivotal I-4 Corridor.
[PA-21, OH-20] Obama launches the OSU vs. PSU Challenge.
[GA-15] InsiderAdvantage has a tie in the Peach State.  And Bob Barr predicts McCain will lose it.
[VA-13, CO-9] Chuck Todd moves Virginia and [...]


Chuck Todd’s Latest Electoral Map: Obama 217, McCain 189

Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific [...]


Electoral Map Daily Compass

The Daily Compass is back!

ALASKA: Nate Silver lays out the argument for an Obama trip to Alaska [FiveThirtyEight.com]
GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage has Obama tied with McCain [Southern Political Report]
IOWA: McCain and Bush tour the Hawkeye State 60 miles apart [New York Times]
IOWA: SurveyUSA says Obama/Webb is the strongest Democratic ticket; McCain/Bloomberg is the best GOP one [Race [...]


A Response to Soren Dayton’s “Map for Victory”

Soren Dayton posted a fascinating analysis at Red State last week detailing the ward-by-ward electoral map of Philadelphia and concluding that Barack Obama ’s poor performance in ethic Catholic neighborhoods might signal a “realignment that puts the Northeast and the Rust Belt back in play” (If you haven’t seen it yet, it’s a must-read and [...]


Regional Reporters Lower Expectations

Each state tends to have a marquee political reporter who sets the tone for campaign coverage but also serves as occasional cheerleader for that state’s electoral importance.  Think Des Moines Register’s David Yespen skewering a candidate for downplaying the caucuses or the New Hampshire Union-Leader’s John DiStaso defending the Granite State’s treasured first-in-the-nation status.
Even Arkansas [...]


Cillizza to Begin Rating Top 10 States Most Likely to Flip

The Fix’s Chris Cillizza announced on Friday that he’s going to begin dedicating his Friday Line to rating which states are most likely to flip from red to blue (or vice versa) in the presidential election.  In last week’s Line, Cillizza offered his base-Line and predicted that eight of the 10 states most likely to [...]


Politics Online Conference: Cartograms

The Institute for Politics, Democracy and the Internet is hosting its annual Politics Online Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday, and I’m lucky enough to be speaking on the Political Cartography 2.0 panel on Tuesday at 4:15 p.m. I’m going to be posting some of the elements on my slideshow in the next couple of days [...]


Will John McCain Paint the Map Red?

John Fund sure thinks so. In a Wall Street Journal column from Monday (that I put off until day because of the Potomac Primary), Fund explains how McCain gets to 270:

New Hampshire: “The Granite State went only narrowly to Mr. Kerry, a senator from a neighboring state, and Mr. McCain has unique advantages there. New [...]


Does Hillary’s Blue-Collar Success Suggest Red State Appeal?

A MyDD blogger named “silverspring” has a diary up with some of the best maps and electoral map analysis that I’ve seen so far in this election cycle.
In a post titled “Political Geography: Advantage Hillary” from January 12, silverspring presents five electoral maps from New Hampshire and six from Iowa to back up his hypothesis [...]


Does Chicago’s Orbit Extend to Iowa?

Ben Tribbett at the indispensable, insightful and indubitable Not Larry Sabato blog suspects that Barack Obama’s success in the vote-rich eastern belt of Iowa “had more to do with proximity to Illinois than it did with the candidates.”
It’s true that eastern Iowa is very much in Chicago’s orbit. Former Speaker Dennis Haster (R-Ill.), for [...]