Writing Archive

“Blue States” Indiana and Virginia Looking Ruby Red Tonight

Only two states voted for Republican presidents from 1968-2004, and then flipped to Barack Obama — Virginia and Indiana. In fact, the blue tide was so strong in those two states that Democrats enjoyed a 5-4 House majority in the Hoosier State and a 6-5 House majority (and both senator seats) in the Old [...]

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What do Elkhart, Ft. Myers and Springfield Have in Common?

Two things:
1. Obama visited all three communities this week to campaign for the stimulus package.
2. They all have unfortunate superlatives relating to the recession.  Elkhart, Ind. has one of the worst unemployment rates in the country.  Ft. Myers, Fla. has the highest rate of home foreclosures nationwide.  And Springfield, Va., if you ask me, has [...]

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Big Upset Brewing in Indiana?

With about 15% of the precincts reporting, Obama is winning about half of the conservative, rural counties of southern Indiana where Bush rolled in 2004.  He’s only losing 51-48% statewide and — get this — Indianapolis, Bloomington (U of Indiana) and Lake County (Gary) haven’t reported yet.
I thought this comment from one of my posts [...]

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Morning Reading List – 10 Days to Go

[MAP] Nielsen finds Obama aired 150% more ads than McCain in seven key swing states.
[FL-27] McCain makes a sweep down the crucial/vital/pivotal I-4 Corridor.
[PA-21, OH-20] Obama launches the OSU vs. PSU Challenge.
[GA-15] InsiderAdvantage has a tie in the Peach State.  And Bob Barr predicts McCain will lose it.
[VA-13, CO-9] Chuck Todd moves Virginia and [...]

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Morning Reading – 13 Days

“North Carolina’s New Blues” [Washington Post from Charlotte]
“McCain Fights to Keep Crucial Blue State in Play” [New York Times from Moon Township, PA]
“McCain, Obama go rural in final fight for Virginia” [Newport News Daily Press from Warsaw, VA]
“Dem: McCain shifts ads to Miami, Indiana” [Ben Smith at the Politico]
“The McCain Pennsylvania Theory” [Chris Bowers at [...]

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Revisiting Indiana and North Dakota

Indiana and North Dakota are two of those states that seemed like longshots for any Democrat a few years ago but now look within reach for Obama. His campaign moved into the Hoosier State relatively late but was up in North Dakota early this summer before pulling out in September.
When the campaign packed its [...]

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Chuck Todd and Others Predict “Landslide” Obama Victory

A few days after news broke that Obama was scaling back his ambitious 25-50 state strategy (depending on who’s counting), NBC political honcho and Frylock-look-alike Chuck Todd predicts that the Illinois senator could be heading for a convincing victory.
“Our new map reflects a shift in Obama’s direction,” he wrote in today’s First Read. “Four new [...]

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McCain Ramping Up Spending in Indiana

Tom Schaller reported on Tuesday that the McCain camp “will be spending precious, limited dollars on ads to defend” the Hoosier State’s 11 electoral votes.
I’d say that Democrats are definitely on the upswing in Indiana, but only a certain brand of them. Democrats like former Vandenburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth who won a closely [...]

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Obama Running Ahead of Kerry in 41 States

Governing.com’s Josh Goodman has a good look at how Barack Obama is running ahead of where John Kerry was four years ago today in 41 states, according to data from Pollster.com.
It’s not surprising considering that Bush is about as popular as the Dallas Cowboys at a Redskins game and considering the fact that Obama makes [...]

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Chuck Todd’s Latest Electoral Map: Obama 217, McCain 189

Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific [...]

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