Writing Archive

Super Tuesday Rundown: Northeastern and Midwestern States

Cross-posted at the Huffington Post.
And check out my rundown of Southern states here.
For the first time in modern American political history, there will be a nationwide primary on Tuesday, February 5. Many of 23 states that moved their primaries to earlier dates did so with the hopes of getting the kind of attention [...]

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Electoral Map Daily Compass: “There Will be Brooms” Edition

Earlier this week, I expected the anti-John McCain factions in the GOP to make one last push. Call it a Battle of the Bulge-type offensive, to use a really bad analogy. Rush Limbaugh was supposed to turn up the heat, Citizens United was reported to be launching an anti-McCain ad buy and Human [...]

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Florida Electoral Map: McCain Swamps Romney in Miami; Hillary Wins Beauty Contest

John McCain beat Mitt Romney by eight points in Pinellas County and six points in Pasco County on his way to a statewide victory Tuesday. McCain’s wins in those two counties, which many analysts suggested would be a barometer of his overall success, pretty much mirrored his 36-31% win over Romney statewide (Map 2).
McCain [...]

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Florida Primer: Who Will the Sun Shine on Today?

When I flew down to Jacksonville in late October, 2007 for the Florida-Georgia game (affectionately known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party), I observed a not only a great football game, but many of the different demographic groups that make up Florida at work.
Jacksonville is the Deep South, and so is the panhandle to [...]

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Electoral Map Daily Compass: Rudy in Florida Edition

Readers — My apologies for not posting more often this week. I’m going to have an item up each [week]day from here on out. To gets things started off on the right foot, here’s the Electoral Map’s Daily Compass for today.
The big questions this week: Will the sun shine on Rudy Giuliani next [...]

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Testing Patrick Ruffini’s Model in Grand Rapids

Patrick Ruffini sees the leading GOP candidates carrying the banner for three distinct camps in the Republican Party.

“Despite the different actors and alliances in different states, we are beginning to see the real dividing lines of this campaign. It’s the battle of the moderates (McCain), metro conservatives (Romney), and rural conservatives (Huckabee). Stripped of [...]

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Nevada Electoral Map

I’ll be up with more maps later today, but in the meantime, the Washington Post has the best Nevada electoral map.
Barack Obama won 11 counties but Hillary Clinton took six of the more populous counties, including Las Vegas’ Clark County. Edwards’ paltry four percent didn’t earn him one county.
Nevada Democratic Electoral Map

And check this [...]

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Michigan Electoral Map

Is the Mitt Romney campaign breathing a sigh of relief after winning their first major primary? Or do they not have time to bask in the victory before pivoting to the Battle Royale that will be South Carolina?
One thing’s for sure: The Republican primary race is now wide open with no clear frontrunner. [...]

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The Post’s Michigan Primer

The Washington Post is up with the latest in their series of maps of primary states. This time the paper details the strategies of the GOP candidates in Michigan. According to the Post:

Mike Huckabee is counting on support from Christian conservatives in western Michigan and in the Upper Peninsula.
Mitt Romney needs to excel [...]

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Does Hillary’s Blue-Collar Success Suggest Red State Appeal?

A MyDD blogger named “silverspring” has a diary up with some of the best maps and electoral map analysis that I’ve seen so far in this election cycle.
In a post titled “Political Geography: Advantage Hillary” from January 12, silverspring presents five electoral maps from New Hampshire and six from Iowa to back up his hypothesis [...]

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