Writing Archive

Swing from 2004 to 2008

Barack Obama is running stronger than John Kerry on the South Coast, the old Northwest and the Mountain West. John McCain is performing better than George W. Bush in Appalachia.

Hat tip to Patrick Ruffini.


The Dumbest Electoral Map Prediction I’ve Seen So Far

Compliments of “political analyst extraordinaire” Dick Morris…


Obama Running Worse Than Kerry Four Years Ago?

James S. Robbins at The Corner takes a counter-intuitive look at where Obama is running vis-a-vis John Kerry four years ago today:
“Today’s map shows Obama with a projected 275 votes to McCain’s 250, with 13 up for grabs. Four years ago — Kerry 317, Bush 202, and 19 tied. Interesting.”
Obama-McCain, August 18, 2008 (Electoral-Vote.com)

Kerry-Bush, August [...]


Chuck Todd Thinks Obama Has a Shot in the Dakotas

Chuck Todd and the MSNBC gang released their latest electoral map today. Almost every prediction remained constant from last time, but Alaska and South Dakota have been moved from Base McCain to Lean McCain.
Are these changes legit? Is the “First Read” team getting duped by the Obama camp or are voters in these [...]


Ambinder’s Latest Electoral Map

Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder posted his prediction for the general election map last Friday, and I drew up this map of it.  McCain’s base is deep red; tilt McCain is pink; toss-up is yellow; tilt Obama is light blue; and Obama’s base is deep blue.
I would make Missouri and Virginia tilt McCain and make Nevada a [...]


Electoral Map Daily Compass

The Daily Compass is back!

ALASKA: Nate Silver lays out the argument for an Obama trip to Alaska [FiveThirtyEight.com]
GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage has Obama tied with McCain [Southern Political Report]
IOWA: McCain and Bush tour the Hawkeye State 60 miles apart [New York Times]
IOWA: SurveyUSA says Obama/Webb is the strongest Democratic ticket; McCain/Bloomberg is the best GOP one [Race [...]


CQ Says Only Four States Would Swing

I’m a former National Journal Group writer, so I never give those turkeys at CQ too much credit, but their analysis of battleground states is worth a look:
“In 2004, Kerry won Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and New Hampshire for a total of 69 electoral votes. Bush won Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and New Mexico [...]


Ben Smith Nabs Rove’s Latest Electoral Maps

Ben Smith got his hands on Karl Rove & Co.’s latest series of electoral map predictions. It looks like the maps have Colorado and New Mexico turning blue, Nebraska shifting back into the GOP column and Wisconsin going from red to a toss-up.  Other than that, not much has changed.
These maps are really just a [...]


The Prince of Darkness Releases His Electoral Map

Bob Novak released his prediction for the electoral map today, and it has John McCain squeaking by with  270 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 268.  He actually breaks down all 50 states — Here are some interesting tidbits about swing states:

Colorado: Novak puts it in the Democratic column and calls it “one of Obama’s best [...]


Karl Rove Throws a Wet Towel on The Electoral Map

Some of us think the battle for the White House will reach new and unfamiliar states.  But not Karl Rove. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, he jeers:
The battlegrounds will look familiar. It will be the industrial heartland from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin, minus Indiana (Republican) and Illinois (Democrat); the western edge of the Midwest from [...]