Ronald Reagan famously explained in 1962 that “I didn’t leave the Democratic Party. The party left me.” Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) made similar statements when they hopped the aisle, but as primaries proved this month, their moves were less successful.
Sean Trende noted back in December 2009 that party switchers have [...]
Writing Archive
Lives of the Party
The Week in Electoral Maps
No fancy maps today, just the Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Arkansas primary maps for your records. It took a Canadian blog called World Elections to produce these great ones (which should come as a challenge to all American cartographers and political junkies).
In “the alcoholic republic,” on the Democratic side, Jack Conway cleaned up in the Louisville [...]
Republicans Regress in Pennsylvania-12
True, the DCCC is the Don Shula of special elections. But as Tom Davis said, “If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?”
Pennsylvania’s 12th is well-known as the only seat that went from Kerry to McCain. Fayette County is perhaps its best battleground [...]
Map of the Day: Democrats On Notice in Clintonian Belt
One of the best predictors of Democrats’ fortunes in the Fall is the ole Clinton vs. Obama electoral map. Incumbents in what can be called the Clintonian Belt are on notice. Last week, 18-year Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) was defeated in a primary in northern West Virginia, a state where Clinton won with 67%.
On Tuesday, [...]
Chuck Todd Says PA is “Gone” for McCain
If the networks are right and McCain has lost Pennsylvania — a state that he blanketed in the past weeks — and New Hampshire — a state he calls his “second home” — then is his spine broken? How does he win without those two states?
In the words of Tim Russert, “Florida, Florida, Florida.”
On Scranton and San Francisco
Sarah Palin jabbed last night that Obama “talks one way in Scranton and another way in San Francisco.”
I love this line — which two cities carry more demographic symbolism than these?
Geographically Speaking, Biden is a Smart Choice
Joe Biden, the blue collar, Catholic, foreign policy expert from Delaware is going to help Barack Obama in places like Pennsylvania’s 12th District. It’s hardcore United Mine Worker and United Steelworker country, the “Cradle of the American Steel Industry,” according to the Almanac of American Politics. It was settled by the irascible Scots-Irish that Jim [...]
Chuck Todd’s Latest Electoral Map: Obama 217, McCain 189
Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific [...]
Obama Running Ads in Red States Where the GOP is Slipping
The Obama camp began airing ads today in seventeen battleground states, some of which are typical swing states and some of which are designed “to sort of drive McCain and Republicans crazy,” as Chuck Todd put it on “Meet.” The strategy being that Obama has no chance of winning Georgia, but it’ll keep the McCain [...]
The Wealthiest States Trending Democratic
The Post had a great article over the weekend about what it called the nation’s “New Political Geography“: poorer, rural areas trending from the Dems to the GOP and more affluent metro areas trending from the red to blue.
It’s a well-documented phenomenon, but I think the Post has some unique and interesting features that are [...]
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