Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific [...]
Writing Archive
Chuck Todd’s Latest Electoral Map: Obama 217, McCain 189
The Wealthiest States Trending Democratic
The Post had a great article over the weekend about what it called the nation’s “New Political Geography“: poorer, rural areas trending from the Dems to the GOP and more affluent metro areas trending from the red to blue.
It’s a well-documented phenomenon, but I think the Post has some unique and interesting features that are [...]
Washington Post’s “Lowest Common Denominator” Map
WaPo’s Dan Balz has an A1 story today explaining the 2008 electoral map to what one might call casual observers of the race. So the article covers most of the CW — Obama will target new battlegrounds like Virginia and Colorado, McCain has his sights on Michigan, the Midwest is pivotal, and so on… [...]
Blue Jersey?
Republican pollster David Winston had a insightful column in Roll Call on Tuesday about the prospects of John McCain putting California into play, but he also had these interesting comments about New Jersey:
“McCain may have been at odds with a part of the GOP base on immigration and other issues. But as it turns out, [...]
McCain Looking Strong in the Northeast
New polls in New Jersey and Connecticut show John McCain tied with or leading both of his Democratic rivals in those two states. A new Rassmussen Reports survey of Garden State voters released today has McCain edging Barack Obama 43-42% and beating Hillary Clinton 45-42%. A Quinnipiac University poll of Connecticut voters [...]
At the Other End of the Holland Tunnel…
Why are New Yorkers always in such a bad mood? Because New Jersey is the light at the end of the tunnel. Bada bing!
Hillary Clinton won the Garden State on the backs of what I call the Carmella Soprano voter: white, upper-class, suburban moms. She won 58% of women, 70% of white baby boomers and [...]
The Metroliner Candidate
John McCain takes Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Delaware.
Amtrak’s Metroliner
The Times Looks at Three Key States
The Times’ examines New Jersey, Missouri and California.
On the Dem side, I expect Hillary Clinton to win New Jersey based on the backs of the Carmello Soprano vote; Hillary to win Missouri by a hair; and Hillary to take about 51 to 54 percent in California, but for the delegates to be split.
On the GOP [...]
Super Tuesday Rundown: Northeastern and Midwestern States
Cross-posted at the Huffington Post.
And check out my rundown of Southern states here.
For the first time in modern American political history, there will be a nationwide primary on Tuesday, February 5. Many of 23 states that moved their primaries to earlier dates did so with the hopes of getting the kind of attention [...]
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