Writing Archive

Chuck Todd Says PA is “Gone” for McCain

If the networks are right and McCain has lost Pennsylvania — a state that he blanketed in the past weeks — and New Hampshire — a state he calls his “second home” — then is his spine broken?  How does he win without those two states?
In the words of Tim Russert, “Florida, Florida, Florida.”


Chuck Todd’s Latest Electoral Map: Obama 217, McCain 189

Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific [...]


Obama Running Ads in Red States Where the GOP is Slipping

The Obama camp began airing ads today in seventeen battleground states, some of which are typical swing states and some of which are designed “to sort of drive McCain and Republicans crazy,” as Chuck Todd put it on “Meet.” The strategy being that Obama has no chance of winning Georgia, but it’ll keep the McCain [...]


Obama’s Anti-Kerry Strategy = Genius

In an interview with Politico’s Ben Smith published this morning, Obama field director Steve Hildebrand vowed that their team would be spending a lot of time and money in Bush country this Fall. He named 14 red states, some of which were close in 2004 and some of which Kerry didn’t even consider, and [...]


Washington Post’s “Lowest Common Denominator” Map

WaPo’s Dan Balz has an A1 story today explaining the 2008 electoral map to what one might call casual observers of the race. So the article covers most of the CW — Obama will target new battlegrounds like Virginia and Colorado, McCain has his sights on Michigan, the Midwest is pivotal, and so on… [...]


Cillizza Posts His Latest Electoral Map Line

Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza is releasing a new presidential electoral map line each Friday. Here is his latest list on Cillizza’s The Fix b.og, along with The Electoral Map’s own analysis. What do you think?
10. Florida (Bush, 52 percent)

The Fix: “Polling suggests that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the nominee, [...]


Regional Reporters Lower Expectations

Each state tends to have a marquee political reporter who sets the tone for campaign coverage but also serves as occasional cheerleader for that state’s electoral importance.  Think Des Moines Register’s David Yespen skewering a candidate for downplaying the caucuses or the New Hampshire Union-Leader’s John DiStaso defending the Granite State’s treasured first-in-the-nation status.
Even Arkansas [...]


Will John McCain Paint the Map Red?

John Fund sure thinks so. In a Wall Street Journal column from Monday (that I put off until day because of the Potomac Primary), Fund explains how McCain gets to 270:

New Hampshire: “The Granite State went only narrowly to Mr. Kerry, a senator from a neighboring state, and Mr. McCain has unique advantages there. New [...]


Does Hillary’s Blue-Collar Success Suggest Red State Appeal?

A MyDD blogger named “silverspring” has a diary up with some of the best maps and electoral map analysis that I’ve seen so far in this election cycle.
In a post titled “Political Geography: Advantage Hillary” from January 12, silverspring presents five electoral maps from New Hampshire and six from Iowa to back up his hypothesis [...]


Electoral Map Daily Compass

The pundits were in total agreement going into New Hampshire that Barack Obama would walk away with a win. In the aftermath, they’re once again on the same page, but this time the pundits are in agreement that they were all wrong — or more accurately, that they were foolish to trust the pollsters, [...]