Three must-reads today:
Karl Rove identifies the four key battleground states in the Wall Street Journal. The Journal is behind a subscription wall, so I’ll give you some hints: two of the states are on the Hayes-Schembechler axis, one state is home to both Red Rocks and the Air Force Academy and one state invaded [...]
Writing Archive
The Electoral Map Daily Compass 8.14
Chuck Todd’s Latest Electoral Map: Obama 217, McCain 189
Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific [...]
If Ruffini’s “Ohichigan” Model Works, Then…
Patrick Ruffini had an interesting post on Tuesday that essentially argued that McCain has no chance of matching Obama on a broad battlefield, so he might as put his chips on the Ohio/Michigan axis, which amounts to a combined 37 electoral votes:
“The trick this time will be to spin the Buckeye-Wolverine axis as the new [...]
Obama Running Ads in Red States Where the GOP is Slipping
The Obama camp began airing ads today in seventeen battleground states, some of which are typical swing states and some of which are designed “to sort of drive McCain and Republicans crazy,” as Chuck Todd put it on “Meet.” The strategy being that Obama has no chance of winning Georgia, but it’ll keep the McCain [...]
The Wealthiest States Trending Democratic
The Post had a great article over the weekend about what it called the nation’s “New Political Geography“: poorer, rural areas trending from the Dems to the GOP and more affluent metro areas trending from the red to blue.
It’s a well-documented phenomenon, but I think the Post has some unique and interesting features that are [...]
Obama’s Anti-Kerry Strategy = Genius
In an interview with Politico’s Ben Smith published this morning, Obama field director Steve Hildebrand vowed that their team would be spending a lot of time and money in Bush country this Fall. He named 14 red states, some of which were close in 2004 and some of which Kerry didn’t even consider, and [...]
Once Upon a Time in the West
Once upon a time the West was solid GOP territory, but in 2008, the Democrats hope to make the region competitive.
The Los Angeles Times and the Politico have very similar but interesting articles today about how the top presidential contenders for each party are campaigning throughout the West early this week. Both Barack Obama and [...]
Cillizza Posts His Latest Electoral Map Line
Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza is releasing a new presidential electoral map line each Friday. Here is his latest list on Cillizza’s The Fix b.og, along with The Electoral Map’s own analysis. What do you think?
10. Florida (Bush, 52 percent)
The Fix: “Polling suggests that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the nominee, [...]
Navigating the “Southwest Passage”
In a fascinating article in The American Prospect today, Tom Schaller dissects whether or not John McCain will thwart the Democrats’ hopes to capture the southwest in 2008. He makes the usual key points that McCain has good name recognition in the West and has a good rep with Hispanics.
But Schaller also adds some [...]
Will John McCain Paint the Map Red?
John Fund sure thinks so. In a Wall Street Journal column from Monday (that I put off until day because of the Potomac Primary), Fund explains how McCain gets to 270:
New Hampshire: “The Granite State went only narrowly to Mr. Kerry, a senator from a neighboring state, and Mr. McCain has unique advantages there. New [...]
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