Everyone seems to be writing about Texas secession since Gov. Wingnut Perry hinted at the idea during a Tea Party rally. In reality, we know that Texas is not going to secede, but I thought it’d be fun to look at some possible scenarios.

North Korea Model

Say Texas did break off; what kind of relationship would it have with the United States? Annie Lowrey at Foreign Policy took a stab at this and predicted that it “would suffer for deserting the world superpower.”

“Obama wouldn’t look kindly on secessionists, and would send in the military to tamp down rebellion. If Texas miraculously managed to hold its borders, Obama would not establish relations with the country.”

The Lone Star State would be all alone.

“Its worth would crater precipitously, after NAFTA rejected it and the United States slapped it with an embargo that would make Cuba look like a free-trade zone. Indeed, Texas would quick become the next North Korea, relying on foreign aid due to its insistence on relying on itself.”

Not a pretty picture.

Czech Model

But what if the feeling was mutual and the United States was fine with Texas going it separate way? What if America got so fed up with the Cowboys calling themselves “America’s Team” that it suggested Texas was cut off from all things America?

Matthew Ygelsias at Think Progress thinks that the United States and Texas could pursue an “amicable divorce.” He points to the so-called “Velvet Revolution” in which the Czech Republic and Slovokia split up and “amicably went their separate ways.”

The terms of this divorce would require the United States to grant “Texas membership in NAFTA and NATO” and Texas to agree to assume its fair share of U.S. national debt. This would “ensure that disruption is minimized and nobody is a threatening anyone else.”

Balkan Model

But that seems a little bit too smooth and peaceful for the state that inspired No Country for Old Men. Texas would be more likely to be torn between loyalist and secessionist forces. Proponents of a breakaway state from Texas itself would find encouragement in clause buried in the state’s charter that legally allows for it to be divided into four additional states.

This strange provision was the result of a compromise over whether or not to admit Texas to the United States as a slave or free state. At the time, Texas’ border extended north past the Missouri Compromise line. Northerners lobbied to form a new state north of this line while southerners were eager to carve Texas’ vast territory into a few slave states.

So Congress struck a deal where Texas would have the right to split in four additional states at the time of its choosing. Any state north of the 36th parallel would be free and the status of slavery in any new states south of the line would be decided by voters.

Perhaps secessionists could dredge up this clause to buttress their arguments. But this action would not go unchecked, and we’d likely see a Balkan scenario where breakaway republics viciously warred with each other for years for impendence.

Basque Model

Besides Texas’ unique statehood background, it also has its own unique culture. Similar to the Basque country in Spain, Texans see themselves as a special entity within a bigger nation. They’re also heavily armed. Could Texans launch a violent guerilla campaign to break away from the United States?

Quebec Model

At the same time that Texas is unique in America, it’s also part of the fabric of America in the same way that Quebec is a part of Canada. Texas has a language that is distinct from mainstream American English, but it still holds a prominent place in the U.S. lexicon.

Quebec went through its own secessionist movements and actually voted on the measure in 1995 (“No” won with 50.6%). Could Texas followe a similar path and take it to a vote? Well, turns about someone already polled Texans, with 75% saying they wished to stay.

Texas Vs. White

Let’s not forget, Texas already seceded once from the United States. But in an interesting twist in history, the fallout of this secession actually paved the way for the law that would make secession ultimately illegal in the United States.

When Texas joined the Confederacy in 1860, its legislature sold all of its U.S. Treasury bonds to a man named George White. After the war when the Reconstruction government took over, it sued White on the grounds that the Confederate government did not have the right to sell those bonds.

In the Supreme Court case Texas vs. White in 1869, the high court sided with the Texas Reconstruction government and ruled the sale of the bonds was null since secession was illegal. And with that ruling, Texas helped set the legal precedent on this matter.

What Would Sam Houston Do?

All of this trouble could be avoided if Texas had just listened to its founding father Sam Houston. In the days preceding the Civil War, he warned:

“To secede from the Union and set up another government would cause war. If you go to war with the United States, you will never conquer her, as she has the money and the men. If she does not whip you by guns, powder, and steel, she will starve you to death.”

Words that ring true today.