If someone held a gun to my head and made me predict the election outcome today, I’d say that every state will vote for the same party it voted for in 2004 with a few exceptions. Iowa will flip to blue; I’m pretty sure about that.
New Mexico and Colorado I’m not so sure about. I’d put McCain as the slight favorite in Colorado and Obama as the slight favorite in New Mexico. But I think it’ll come down to these two states.
I don’t see Obama winning Florida or warming up to enough conservative Democrats in Ohio to win that state. And likewise, I don’t think McCain can pick off Michigan, not this year (As for Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia or Nevada flipping? Close, but no cigar. I can explain in the comment section).
That leaves McCain with 266 votes and Obama with 258, making those two states must-wins for Obama.
Of course, things will change. But for the time being, the election is hinging on those two states’ 14 electoral votes. Maybe Tom Schaller was right after all.
UPDATE: My math was way off originally – I’d said that the scenario below was McCain 265, Obama 261. My bad.
UPDATE II: Great minds think alike. From Stu Rothenberg’s column today:
“I’ve become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one — one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado.
“If John McCain carries Colorado in November, I’d expect him to hold onto all of George W. Bush’s 2000 states, with the exception of New Hampshire. If he does that, and if Obama holds all of Al Gore’s states, plus New Hampshire, McCain would win 274 electoral votes to 264 for Obama.
“If Obama carries the state, he has altered the arithmetic of the Electoral College so as to make it difficult for McCain to win.”
toby
18 September 2008 at 11:57 am
Isn’t this woefully premature? A week ago McCain was buoyant and the media were full of the Palin “gamechanger” miracle.
Now Palin’s star has faded, McCain seems to be caught on the wrong side of a financial crisis, and his numbers are plunging.
Further, a debate-related surge is not impossible by either candidate. And, Obama’s ground game is as yet an unknown quantity.
At the moment, everything hinging on New Mexico and Colorado, may be McCain’s best hope, and Obama’s worst-case secenario.
Silent Cal
18 September 2008 at 12:37 pm
There are 538 electoral votes. If McCain wins New Mexico and Obama wins Colorado, the total on your map would be McCain 270, Obama 268.
Greg
18 September 2008 at 1:54 pm
Once, the country realizes Fannie May and Feddie Mac are quazie goverment organizations and congress is responsible for the morgage financial crisis. The american people will look for the Republicains to come in and fix the mess the goverment made. If the election was held today Obama may have a chance but once the country lays the financial problem at the congress doorstep people will blame Polosie and Reid. McCaine is a lock in November
Jay
18 September 2008 at 2:24 pm
I think you are correct that Tom Schaller was right that the Democrats would be better off giving up on the South in a presidential election and looking to other states in the West and Midwest.
And now having picked a double Yankee Liberal ticket I don’t see how they win a single state in the South and Border states (including W VA, KY, MO and OK) and the 11 states of the Old Confederacy.
The only problem with this strategy is that you end up (with the solidly GOP states in the Rocky Mountain states and Alaska voting for the GOP) writing off over 200 electoral votes.
That makes it very difficult to win. I think Obama needed to pick a running mate from the South to wrap the election up but he did not do that.
As for Schaller, his book may have some good demographic points but it is very difficult to find them amid all the hatespeech about Republicans. I found the book almost unreadable and sickening. It is sort of a leftwing diatribe full of hatred for conservatives sort of a Mein Kampf a la liberal.
toby
19 September 2008 at 3:20 am
Jay,
You seem to forget that Maryland and Delaware are also Border States. The Mason-Dixon line runs between Maryland and Pennsylvania. Washington was once a Southern City but DC, Delaware and Maryland have been solidly Democrat in the last 4 Presidential elections.
If it could happen in Maryland, why should not that same Democrat-leaning midnset “seep” into Northern Virginia? With the growth of high-tech industies and modern educational institutions in parts of the Old South (North Carolina and Georgia) for example, the demographics of those regions have changed more favourably for the Democrats (more minorities, for example).
Florida is exceptional because of the complete change in demographics brought about by the number of retirees.
This suggests that selected southern states are vulnerable to the Democrats, if not at this election, then at some future one.
Viriginia has been a tie or leaning Obama in many polls now. The Obama campaign believes with new registrations, and a renewed GOTV effort, Florida is winnable. They are to spend $39m there between now and the election. I agree that Georgia, North Carolina and Missouri are probably out of reach this time out.
Los Politico
19 September 2008 at 10:22 am
I think NV is more likely than NM for Obama. I know the polling doesn’t show that, but Gore only won NM because of a snow storm and Kerry lost the state in 2004 .
Obama didn’t have much appeal to Hispanics or Native Americans in the Primary. McCain has at least some appeal to them, enough that I think they will break about the same as they in the past 2 cycles. NM has seen little movement in party ID shift when compared to NV (or even CO).
NV has been almost as close as NM the past few elections but they have also seen a huge party ID shift from slight GOP advantage to a big Dem advantage. Plus the state has been one of the hardest hit by the mortgage collapse.
All in all I think you’re right that it rests on CO, but I think NV will poll stronger for Obama than NM come election day.
Los Politico
19 September 2008 at 10:25 am
Oh, and why have we heard so little about the ballot initiatives in CO? One to define life as starting as conception and one to ban affirmative action. Those are both proven voter turnout issues for the GOP. Their presence makes me think the state will stay red this November.
Reagan
21 September 2008 at 10:32 am
I am on the ground in Colorado and the trend is increasingly toward Obama…We have run out of yard signs / sticker magnets twice since the Convention…People are showing up in large numbers to volunteer and not just youth.
late last year it was a whisper campaign compared to now!!!
TheTallestTree
24 September 2008 at 5:12 pm
I’d say New Mexico is leaning Obama, you could make a much better argument with Nevada, or even New Hampshire.
Nick
25 September 2008 at 4:52 pm
Trust me…I have lived in Denver my whole life…..We are going blue this time around NO DOUBT