Mike Murphy at Swampland lays out a [very likely] nightmare scenario for McCain: “The state by state results look a lot like 2004, but Obama picks up NM, CO and IA leaving the electoral college count at a razor close 269 Obama to 265 McCain. New Hampshire’s four electoral votes hold the final balance.”
McCain is strong in New Hampshire. The Arizona Republic calls it “McCain’s turf,” and the senator calls the state his “second home.”
But under Murphy’s scenario, “The same quirky New Englanders who put John McCain on the map in 2000 and saved his campaign in 2008 decide to ultimately punish McCain, to destroy that which they created. New Hampshire votes as it did in 2004 — Democratic –- and the Presidency is Obama’s.”
I’d say this is a pretty likely outcome — I’ll even go on the record now and say that New Hampshire casts its four electoral votes for Obama.
New Hampshire used to be one of the most Republican states in the Union. To throw a couple of stats at you, Republicans controlled both houses of the state Legislature from 1911 to 2006 and controlled at least the governorship or Legislature from 1876 to 2006.
Its politics were once defined by a Yankee Republicanism that was fiercely independent and anti-tax – the antithesis to the New Deal programs of FDR and LBJ Democrats.
And its politics and culture still are that way to a degree. But its also taken on an air of “Nouvelle Hampshire,” to borrow Henry Allen’s term, as rich suburbanites from Taxachussetts creep north.
Iit’s not only the newcomers. I have a friend who was raised in Concord, whose family is old school New Hampshire and is tied in with the state Republican establishment, who voted for Barack Obama in the primaries. I doubt he was the only one.
If you look at the results of the primary, John McCain received about 88,571 votes, which was well-below Obama’s 104,815 and Hillary Clinton’s 112,404.
McCain essentially finished third in New Hampshire in January. Expect him to finish second there in November.
Silent Cal
17 September 2008 at 8:39 AM
“Its politics were once defined by a Yankee Republicanism that was fiercely independent and anti-tax – the antithesis to the New Deal programs of FDR and LBR Democrats.”
Yeah, New Hampshire really hates that Lyndon Baines Rohnson.
Patrick Ottenhoff
17 September 2008 at 8:56 AM
Good catch Cal — It’s been corrected.
Jay
17 September 2008 at 3:26 PM
Patrick with all due respect, New Hampshire is not as anti-FDR as you indicated. It supported Franklin Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944 and barely rejected him in 1932. It also opposed Barry Goldwater and supported Lyndon Johnson by 64% in 1964.
There was always a strong blue collar Catholic population around Manchester that usually supported Democrats which made New Hampshire more of a swing state than Vermont and Maine. These voters swung to Reagan and Bush 41 later on social issues.
Democrats elected Governors, Senators and Members of Congress in the 1960s and the 1970s, It was only in the Reagan era that the Democrats were losing everything.
Now with the shift by largely Protestant and non-religious voters in the towns near Vermont and the seacoast area to the Democrats, the Democratic party is coming back. I would not blame the Massachusetts voters as much for the shift (the Boston exurbs in NH generally still support Republicans and opposed Obama in the primary). It is the western NH area which is shifting more to the Democrats not the border areas near Massachusetts.
Also the older voters that were conservative and were influenced by the Loeb family-owned Manchester Union Leader have either moved away or died.
Another trend that is interesting in New Hampshire is the large scale departure of young families in recent years. Generally young families with children vote Republican these days.
I still think McCain has a chance to win here if he can halt the trend against the GOP in the Seacoast and reignite the blue collar Democrats in the Manchester area with the Palin factor.
Patrick Ottenhoff
17 September 2008 at 5:12 PM
Well, I stand corrected — I definitely learned something about New Hampshire from your comment, too. Thanks.