James S. Robbins at The Corner takes a counter-intuitive look at where Obama is running vis-a-vis John Kerry four years ago today:
“Today’s map shows Obama with a projected 275 votes to McCain’s 250, with 13 up for grabs. Four years ago — Kerry 317, Bush 202, and 19 tied. Interesting.”
Indeed.
Obama-McCain, August 18, 2008 (Electoral-Vote.com)
Kerry-Bush, August 18, 2004 (Electoral-Vote.com)
4 responses so far ↓
1 Barth // Aug 19, 2008 at 2:41 pm
That site, a very good one, is using a completly different algorithim, or mehtodology this year
2 Ben // Aug 19, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Somwhat interesting, though Obama still leads Kerry among strong & weak 250-236. Most of the 81 “Barely Kerry” fell away (he won 251 evs in 04), which makes me look at the 85 “Barely GOP” and wonder how firm McCain’s projection number is.
Also must be noted that this period in 04 was one of Kerry’s best - after the Democratic Convention, before Republican convention, and just on the cusp of the Swiftboat attacks. (A small buy was made on 8/4, but 8/20 started the full on blitz)
What shocks me is that more states are Strong GOP under McCain than Bush. That’s interesting.
3 Gregg // Aug 20, 2008 at 11:58 am
Interesting that they also have Indiana as Barely Obama too. I would think toss up or McCain.
4 Alex // Aug 22, 2008 at 2:30 am
I guess Kerry’s map reflects his maximum advantage in national polls in late July. I guess the states map just lags behind. This time four years ago Bush just overtook Kerry in national polls so there is no way Kerry could be over 100 electoral votes ahead in late August. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Pres08vs04aand000verlay-thumb-600×450.png
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