Governing.com’s Josh Goodman has a good look at how Barack Obama is running ahead of where John Kerry was four years ago today in 41 states, according to data from Pollster.com.
It’s not surprising considering that Bush is about as popular as the Dallas Cowboys at a Redskins game and considering the fact that Obama makes Kerry look about as exciting as a trigonometry class, but there are some telling aspects about the particular states where Obama is running above Kerry.
Goodman points out:
States where Obama is running 15 points or more ahead of Kerry:
North Dakota (24.96), Wyoming (23.89), Idaho (23.72), Montana (23.6), Hawaii (21.26), Indiana (20.08), Alaska (19.45), Utah (17.94), Texas (16.46), South Dakota (15.37).
This group includes nine of the most Republican states in the country (at least in terms of recent presidential performance) and one Democratic state — Hawaii. Hawaii is Obama’s birthplace, as well as a place where Kerry underperformed, so it’s not surprising.
Nine of the most Republican and also nine of the whitest states.
Goodman goes on to note that Obama is also running stronger that Kerry by double-digits in Bush-loving states like Kansas (13.58), Oklahoma (12.94), Alabama (12.82), Nebraska (11.82), Georgia (11.1) and Mississippi (10.79) — not to mention swing and blue states like Virginia and Maryland.
Meanwhile, Obama is running worse than Kerry in four states: Tennessee (-0.43), West Virginia (-0.64), Nevada (-1.01), Massachusetts (-6.56).
Taxachusetts is Kerry’s home state, so that’s understandable, and Nevada is the consummate wild card, so it is predictably unpredictable. But Tennessee and West Virginia are the classic Jacksonian Democratic states that Sen. Jim Webb identified in his gold standard account of Appalachian history, politics and culture: “Born Fighting.”
These data reveal three very key points that say a lot about this election. I’m not the first to identify these points, but I think they’re worth reiterating:
- The whiter the state and the closer to the Great White North (that’s Canada’s knickname for you knuckleheads who are ignorant of the great film “Strange Brew.”), the more support Obama gets.
- The states with higher percentages of African-Americans voters and most notably the states that had the highest percentage of slaves in the Confederacy are more competitive but more polarized. These are the states that sweep like a reaper’s ax from the Carolinas down through the Heart of Dixie and into the Mississippi River Basin. They’ll have high African-American turnout for Obama, but also high white turnout for McCain.
- The Jacksonian Democratic areas on the Appalachian spine do not like Obama, and it has nothing to do with race. It has everything to do with character and identity. Who are these Scots-Irish voters going to support: The self-described skinny black kid from Chicago with a funny name or the former POW and son of an admiral who claims to be a descendant of Scottish warrior Robert the Bruce.
Keep these three points in mind and they’ll go a long way in explaining why Obama is running strong or weak in certain states.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Citizen Grim // Aug 14, 2008 at 3:25 pm
The Jacksonian Democratic areas on the Appalachian spine do not like Obama, and it has nothing to do with race.
To expand on this, note where Appalachia falls on that 1860 map of slave populations…
All too often, people in Appalachia are tarred with the “racist redneck” slur, and it’s a shame.
Aside from African-Americans themselves, and arguably the Jews, I think the Scots-Irish are one of the most abused and maligned people-groups in history.
2 Mattw // Aug 17, 2008 at 1:22 am
I’m Irish-American. We’re generally racists of the worst kind. End of story.
3 Clint Cooper // Aug 18, 2008 at 2:28 am
lol. As if all Scotch/Irish live in Appalachia or something. It’s not the Scotch/Irish who get a bad name, it’s the uneducated Scotch/Irish from Appalachia who murder minorities and gay people who make a bad name for the region.
4 khonea // Oct 4, 2008 at 8:17 am
Coming from Knoxville TN I can tell you that it has nothing to do with heritage but instead socio-economic standing. People here are either low income non educated people who grew up around the area and still think Barrak Obama is a racist muslim or people from outsidfe the area making more that $225,000 a year who are scared of Mr Obama’s tax system. It is an interesting dichotomy the poor here outway the wealthy ten to one but because of the history of the rich as the ruling and smarter class the poor uphold the beliefs and allow their beliefs to be swayed in a manner that hurts them socio-economically
5 khonea // Oct 31, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Oops I meant outweigh…I have been in Tennessee too long…
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