Chuck moves Oregon and New Jersey from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama” and moves Iowa from “toss-up” to “leans Obama.”
I’d say that’s about right. The Oregon and Iowa adjustments speak to Obama’s strength in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — or “the ‘region’ of Illinois,” as Chuck puts it — and in the Pacific Northwest.
Some other interesting tidbits from his analysis:
- “If this were October 26 instead of August 6, we probably wouldn’t have this many toss-ups states on our map. Florida, Missouri, and Nevada would move into the Lean McCain column, while Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania would move into Obama’s.”
- “It would leave us with four pure toss-ups: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. And under that scenario, McCain would need to win ALL THREE of Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia to win or break a 269-269 tie.”
- “Keep an eye on Wisconsin, Indiana, and North Carolina. The RNC believes all is not lost yet in Wisconsin.”
cyanoia
9 August 2008 at 10:22 pm
The way to convince me that General Electric isn’t controlling what makes it to the show is to include in all this talk about the electoral college the array of devices used by the Republicans to rig the vote. Polling is irrelevant, when they only have to rig enough votes in a few states to alter the outcome by a few percentage points.
you could start with Ohio, 2004, where the Secretary of State was also co-chair of the Bush re-election committee.
The truth is out there–but can it make it to MSNBC?
cyanoia
9 August 2008 at 10:26 pm
oh, and if you want a source as a beginning point, try this rolling stone article
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen
remind the people what happened in 2004 and help stop a repeat.
Clint Cooper
18 August 2008 at 2:21 am
The fact that anyone would seriously have PA as a tossup is just crazy at this point. Please visit the Board of Elections website (Department of State) and tell me which party is raking in all the new registrations week in, week out.
I mean for God’s sakes, for the first time ever, Democrats have a 12 or 13 point lead in registrations over the Republicans. PA is NOT a swing state this year I’m sorry. It just isn’t.