An ongoing battle between the Nevada GOP brass and a fierce faction of Ron Paul loyalists could have major consequences in November: If the rift isn’t healed, the Paul supporters look like they’re poised to cast their ballots for a Paul as a write-in, or support Libertarian candidate Bob Barr or even throw their vote to Barack Obama out of spite for McCain.
The sour relations began at the state GOP convention when Paul supporters assembled a clear majority in the run-up to the vote to send delegates to the convention. Paul had finished in second place in the caucus, ahead of McCain, and their people thought that they should be well-represented in Minneapolis-St. Paul.
But the heads of the Nevada Republican Party, who are McCain allies, used parliamentary tactics to stall a vote and consequently ran out the clock. They decided that a state GOP committee, and not county delegates, would decide who went to the convention. The Paul people filed suit and lost, and vow to take their grievances to the Republican National Committee.
Even if they win, which appears unlikely, the damage has been done. According to this TIME article, it appears that the Paul supporters would rather vote for a ham sandwich than McCain. It’s not clear how large their faction is, but if it’s large enough to shave two or three points off of McCain’s tally in the state, it means that Obama could win Nevada’s five electoral votes with a plurality.
Bill Clinton won Nevada in 1992 with only 37 percent thanks to independent Ross Perot picking off 26 percent.
Paul and Perot share many similarities. Besides the fact that they’re both fiery Texans with bold views, they both espouse a distrust for the federal government and both command a loyal following. They also seem to win support in similar geographical areas.
If you look at the maps below of Ron Paul donations and Ross Perot performance during the 1992 campaign, Paul and Perot had their best success in Western state and in Nevada in particular.
Nevada is a tough state to analyze because so many of its voters are new transplants. But as the state grows and changes, one thing remains constant: It has a robust libertarian streak. Nevada’s DNA is rooted in libertarianism, from the anti-government and pro-gun lifestyle of the range to the prostitution, gambling and hedonism of Las Vegas.
This is prime Paul territory, and those Paul supporter will vote. The question, For who?
Paul Donations in 2008 Q4 (RonPaulGraphs.com)
Perot Performance in 1992 — Perot is green
2 responses so far ↓
1 Citizen Grim // Aug 4, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Obama lost the libertarian vote the day this quote (from his wife) hit:
“Barack Obama will require you to work. He is going to demand that you shed your cynicism. That you put down your divisions. That you come out of your isolation, that you move out of your comfort zones. That you push yourselves to be better. And that you engage. Barack will never allow you to go back to your lives as usual, uninvolved, uninformed.”
2 tom // Aug 26, 2008 at 2:47 pm
The GOP went to great lenghts in many states to prevent Paul form having any delegates at the convention in Minn. This is why he is running his campaign for liberty kick off convention in the same state.
I am a supporter of many of Rep Paul’s proposed policies. Neither “major” candidate will change much about the way the federal government is run. both will increase sepnding and taxes whether its the dem way of raising taxes or the GOP’s way of taxing through inflation. neither will restore a balance of power amongst the SC, Congress, and the white house and neither will get the corrupt practice of lobbying by corporations out of the federal governemnt. my only wish for this election is for a significant # of rational Americans to vote for a “third Party” candidate.
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