When the Obama camp announced that it was going to make a play for North Dakota, a lot of people scoffed. I, for one, was skeptical.
But then we all started taking a look at the ROI — the fact that the Obama camp could throw relative pennies at the state and win enough votes to make it competitive — and started thinking that maybe it was a smart choice to at the very least annoy McCain there.
Well, now the polls are suggesting that maybe the Obama team was on to something.
A new Research 2000 poll released today shows McCain leading by only three points, 45-42%. This one poll by itself wouldn’t convince me of much, but I’ve noticed a couple of other surprising facts about North Dakota this week.
First, Michael Barone identified it as the state with the third highest percentage of voters under 30. Secondly, Joel Kotkin noted in his NewGeography.com column today that Bismarck is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, and is experiencing a economic boom fueled by soaring demand for energy.
Good economy. Young voters. Sounds like a recipe for Obama support.
Throw that in with the fact that North Dakota is overwhelmingly white — Obama does better with white voters in states with fewer minorities — and the fact that it’s populated by Germanic and Scandinavian descendants, which are demographic groups that are often fans of post-partisans appeals, and you’ve got a state within reach for Obama.
So keep an eye on North Dakota — I’m ready to declare it a battleground state.
4 responses so far ↓
1 Citizen Grim // Jul 25, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Good news for McCain… according to Gallup, beer is ahead of wine by 12%. (Among older voters… er, drinkers… it’s a 20% lead. Senior citizens prefer wine, by 10%.)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109066/Beer-Back-DoubleDigit-Lead-Over-Wine-Favored-Drink.aspx
2 Jay // Jul 25, 2008 at 3:45 pm
I think a major reason for the low numbers for McCain in North and South Dakota is that the conservative base is still not solidly behind him.
Remember this is a state which does not like GOP moderates.
The poorest performance for a Republican presidential candidate in recent years in North Dakota was 1996 (Bob Dole - 47%), 1992 (George H W Bush -44%), 1988 (George H.W. Bush - 56%) and 1976 (Gerald Ford - 52%).
McCain also ran poorly in North Dakota’s caucuses winning only 23% in 2008 and 19% in 2000.
Jay
Electionwatcher2008
3 JoJo // Jul 27, 2008 at 8:51 pm
How does a good economy in ND make it favorable for Obama? BTW those under 30s will have to actually show up on election day. As James Carvell said when asked what do you call a candidate who depends on the youth vote to win. he responded “Loser”
4 Clint Cooper // Aug 18, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Under 30’s have been showing up with steadily increasing frequency. The GOP can no longer assume they will stay home.
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