Writing

Pundits Whistlin’ Dixie

The Southern Political Report released its report of “Dixie’s Competitive Congressional Districts” on Monday, and according to SPR’s Hastings Wyman, “This year some 21 of the South’s 162 congressional seats are more or less ‘in play,’ 12 of them currently held by Republicans, 9 by Democrats. Due to such factors as a strong tide against the party in power and the ability of probable Democratic nominee Barack Obama to bring out an unusually large turn-out among African Americans and young voters, Democrats stand the better chance of making gains this fall.”

Here’s a map of SPR’s competitive districts in Dixie followed by statsfrom SPR, Cook and CQ.

Southern Political Report: “Dixie’s Competitive Congressional Districts”

Dixie\'s Competitive Congressional Districts

12 Republican Seats in Play

Alabama-02 (Dothan) – OPEN — Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Republican”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +13
  • 2004: Bush with 67%

Florida-13 (Sarasota) – Rep. Vern Buchanan

  • Cook Rating: “Likely Republican”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +4
  • 2004: Bush 56%

Florida-21 (Miami-Dade) – Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart

  • Cook Rating: “Likely Republican”
  • CQ Politics: “Republican Favored”
  • Cook PVI: R +6
  • 2004: Bush 57%

Florida 24 (Orlando) – Rep. Tom Feeney

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Republican”
  • CQ Politics: “Republican Favored”
  • Cook PVI: R +3
  • 2004: Bush 55%

Kentucky-02 (Bowling Green) – OPEN – Rep. Ron Lewis retiring

  • Cook Rating: No Rating
  • CQ Politics: “Safe Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +13
  • 2004: Bush 65%

Louisiana-04 (Shreveport) – OPEN — Rep. Jim McCrery retiring

  • Cook Rating: “Toss Up”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +7
  • 2004: Bush 59%

North Carolina-03 (Greenville) — Rep. Walter Jones

  • Cook Rating: No Rating
  • CQ Politics: “Safe Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +15
  • 2004: Bush 68%

North Carolina-08 (Concord) – Rep. Robin Hayes

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Republican”
  • CQ Politics: “No Clear Favorite”
  • Cook PVI: R +3
  • 2004: Bush 54%

Texas-10 (Austin) — Rep. Mike McCaul

  • Cook Rating: No Rating
  • CQ Politics: “Safe Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +13
  • 2004: Bush 62%

Virginia-02 (Virginia Beach) – Rep. Thelma Drake

  • Cook Rating: “Likely Republican”
  • CQ Politics: “Republican Favored”
  • Cook PVI: R +6
  • 2004: Bush 58%

Virginia-05 (Charlottesville) — Rep. Virgil Goode

  • Cook Rating: No Rating
  • CQ Politics: “Safe Republican”
  • Cook PVI: R +6
  • 2004: Bush 56%

Virginia-11 (Fairfax County) – OPEN – Rep. Tom Davis retiring

  • Cook Rating: “Toss Up”
  • CQ Politics: “No Clear Favorite”
  • Cook PVI: R +1
  • 2004: Bush 52%

9 Democratic Seats in Play

Alabama-05 (Huntsville) – OPEN — Rep. Bud Cramer (D) retiring

  • Cook Rating: “Toss Up”
  • CQ Politics: “No Clear Favorite”
  • Cook PVI: R +6
  • 2004: Bush 60%

Florida-16 (Hobe Sound) – Rep. Tim Mahoney

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Democratic”
  • CQ Politics: “No Clear Favorite”
  • Cook PVI: R +2
  • 2004: Bush 54%

Georgia-08 (Macon) — Rep. Jim Marshall

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Democratic”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Democrat”
  • Cook PVI: R +8
  • 2004: Bush 61%

Kentucky-03 (Louisville) – Rep. John Yarmuth

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Democratic”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Democrat”
  • Cook PVI: D +2
  • 2004: Kerry 51%

Louisiana-06 (Baton Rouge) – Rep. Don Cazayoux

  • Cook Rating: “Lean Democratic”
  • CQ Politics: “No Clear Favorite”
  • Cook PVI: R +7
  • 2004: Bush 59%

Mississippi-01 (Tupelo) – Rep. Travis Childers

  • Cook Rating: “Toss Up”
  • CQ Politics: “No Clear Favorite”
  • Cook PVI: R +10
  • 2004: Bush 62%

North Carolina-11 (Asheville) – Rep. Heath Shuler

  • Cook Rating: No Rating
  • CQ Politics: “Democrat Favored”
  • Cook PVI: R +7
  • 2004: Bush 57%

Texas-22 (Sugar Land) – Rep. Nick Lampson

  • Cook Rating: “Toss Up”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Democrat”
  • Cook PVI: R +15
  • 2004: Bush 64%

Texas-23 (San Antonio) – Rep. Ciro Rodriguez

  • Cook Rating: “Likely Democratic”
  • CQ Politics: “Leans Democrat”
  • Cook PVI: R +4
  • 2004: Bush 57%

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3 Responses to “Pundits Whistlin’ Dixie”

  1. Moira Toner

    28 May 2008 at 4:27 PM

    You’ve incorrectly painted FL-13 red. FL-13 is blue, and getting blue-er. A couple of days ago, I ran some comparative numbers from http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/ which pulls its data from official campaign disclosure data.

    Subjective statements can paint the town red, but the facts are true blue.

    As of 27 May 08:

    Sarasota

    Including 2004, Democratic contributors out-numbered Republicans by 4%
    Excluding 2004, Democratic contributors out-number Republicans by 77%

    Bradenton

    Including 2004, Republican contributors out-numbered Democrats by 32%
    Excluding 2004, Democratic contributors out-number Republicans by 34%

    Contribution Dollar Totals, Including Older Results (2004-2008)

    $1,729,173 was given by people who identified their city as ” Sarasota “.
    $840,256 from 804 people to Republicans
    $888,917 from 839 people to Democrats

    $508,507 was given by people who identified their city as ” bradenton “.
    $339,314 from 317 people to Republicans
    $169,193 from 241 people to Democrats

    Newer Results Only (2007-2008)

    $1,136,432 was given by people who identified their city as ” sarasota “.
    $463,888 from 387 people to Republicans
    $672,544 from 675 people to Democrats

    $229,313 was given by people who identified their city as ” bradenton “.
    $101,317 from 117 people to Republicans
    $127,996 from 157 people to Democrats

    Moira A Toner
    moiratoner@yahoo.com
    941 362 9199

  2. nimh

    28 May 2008 at 10:32 PM

    Moira,

    I’m not the author, but as reader it seems pretty straightforward to me that the map is colored according to which party holds the seat now.

    Blue districts are districts currently held by the Dems; dark blue ones are districts currently held by the Dems that will be in play this year. Red districts are districts currently held by the Reps; dark red ones, like FL-13, are districts currently held by the Reps that will be in play this year.

  3. Moira Toner

    29 May 2008 at 8:13 AM

    You’re right on the actual map colors. I was pointing to the Red-to-Blue trend in FL-13. Your content–and source– describes FL-13 as “Likely Republican” and “Leans Republican” while the $$$ points and trends Democratic.


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